Shopping for a cheap electricity rate in Texas is a tricky business. Most electricity plans in Texas feature rate formulas rather than actual guaranteed rates. The TXU AutoSaver plan is no exception. At the end of the day, your actual electricity rate will depend on several factors; some of which are outside of your control.
Here we outline the details of this new plan and compare it to plans available from Gexa and TriEagle Energy.
The TXU Autosaver plan is advertised as a way to allow consumers to benefit from any drop in natural gas prices while protecting them from rising prices beyond a certain level.
The electricity rate in the TXU Autosaver 12 plan is tied to the price of natural gas. As the primary source of fuel for electricity in Texas, natural gas drives much of the pricing of electricity. It should be noted that this plan comes at a time when natural gas prices are already near historical lows. The plan features a price cap feature that puts an upper limit on the electricity rate once natural gas hits a price of $3.50/MMBtu. At the time of this writing, that is about double the current price of natural gas.
Historical Price of Natural Gas
What is the electricity rate on the TXU AutoSaver Plan?
The rate customers pay for this plan is based on a complicated formula that includes a “Natural Gas Factor”. This allows the rate on the plan to fluctuate based on the monthly closing price for natural gas. The plan also includes a flat monthly charge of $9.95, a Base Rate of 7.4¢ per kWh, and TDU pass through fees.
Here is how that looks:
| Base Rate (per kWh) | 7.4¢ |
| Base Charge (per Month) | $9.95 |
| Natural Gas Charge (per kWh) | 1.995¢ |
| Flat Pass-through Delivery Charge | $3.42 |
| Pass-through Delivery Charge per kWh | 3.5778¢ |
| Total Average Rate (1000 kWh) | 14.3¢/kWh |
* For this illustration we used the pricing for the Oncor delivery area which includes the Dallas / Fort Worth area. Different parts of the state have different rates. We will also assume a natural gas price of $1.50/MMBtu
The above data is pull from the plan’s Electricity Facts Label on July 14. 2020
Is the TXU AutoSaver Plan a Good Deal?
The plan does have an upside cap that prevents the Natural Gas Charge from going above 4.655¢. This puts an upside limit on your effective electricity rate of 17.0¢ per kWh if you use 1000 kWh in a billing cycle.
But let’s consider a mathematically best case scenario where natural gas prices go to zero. This is not a realistic real world scenario, but it allows us to see the absolute lower bounds of the electricity rate under this plan.
| Base Rate (per kWh) | 7.4¢ |
| Base Charge (per Month) | $9.95 |
| Natural Gas Charge (per kWh) | 0¢ |
| Flat Pass-through Delivery Charge | $3.42 |
| Pass-through Delivery Charge per kWh | 3.5778¢ |
| Total Average Rate (1000 kWh) | 12.3¢/kWh |
Even at a zero cost of natural gas, this plan would still have an all-in electricity rate of 12.3¢ per kWh for the 1000 kWh usage level in the Oncor delivery area. At the time of this writing, there are plans available with advertised rates below 6.0¢ at 1000 KWh usage in the Oncor delivery area.
To be fair, these plans have their own potential drawbacks. Many of them rely on usage credits that kick in right around 1000 kWhs of usage to create a best case rate scenario right at 1000 kWh. If your actual usage falls outside of this range your effective all-in electricity rate could be much higher than the advertised rate. This is illustrated in the chart below. You can see that the effective rate for the Gexa Saver Deluxe 12 Plan drops substantially at 1000 kWhs of use but jumps sharply once usage exceeds 2000 kWh. This is because the usage credit only applies to usages that fall between 1000 and 2000 kWhs.
So how does the TXU AutoSaver plan compare to plans with a simpler structure?
Trieagle Energy, a company known for less complicated rate plans currently has a plan available for 9.7¢ per kWh at the 1000 kWh usage level. This plan doesn’t rely on usage credits and isn’t indexed to the price of natural gas. This means your actual rate is going to be close to the advertised rate once your bill arrives.
Bottom Line
It’s very easy for a consumer of electricity in Texas to get stuck in the weeds trying figure out what is the cheapest electricity plan for them. The plans are usually complicated, and the numbers can be overwhelming. Below we have developed a chart that compares the TXU AutoSaver Plan to plans from Gexa and Triangle. You can see at a glance what you might expect to pay for electricity based on how much electricity you use. It also serves as an illustration of just how volatile electricity rates can be even under a single plan.
This chart shows what your actual bill would be based on the same data.
